Is it important who won in Geneva?

Claims and counter claims are the next best strategy by both the GOSL and the LTTE following the much watched peace talks since the conflict began. It was clear that both parties arrive in Geneva with the intention of winning the public opinion and sympathy for their position.

Let’s look at what LTTE came out with. Soon after President Rajapakse came to office LTTE made the critical decision to attack the security forces without provocation calculating that this type of intimidation can be a great bargaining tool at peace talks at a later date. This was an out-and-out violation of the CFA and with their brutal risk taking history to backup their ploy saw to that GOSL seek cessation of such assault in the future. Simply said, it hurt the GOSL bad enough to ask for it. As matter of fact, this issue should not have been a talking point in the first place at Geneva had LTTE stick to the CFA in the first place. A non issue made to the GOSL’s wish list when other pressing matters like LTTE violations and child soldiers could have received more attention. On this issue LTTE gained.

Yet in the opening remarks I could not help notice Balasingam mentioned “paramilitaries” twenty five times more than any issue. It shows how desperate and close they are to loosing the East. Even though LTTE got assurance from the GOSL to stamp out Karuna, surely LTTE knows fully well that the paramilitaries do not operate in GOSL controlled areas and the GOSL do not have the resources to disarm them anyway. More importantly to us as much as the LTTE did in the past, the GOSL will hoodwink on this issue for sure. Perhaps we can say that this is symbolic victory for the LTTE cohorts to brag about before bedtime.

As always there are snags the LTTE has to overcome. There are convincing humanity issues that LTTE never want to discuss at any forum, such as respect of life, Tamils’ right to exercise democratic values, to accept others’ view points etc. As a negotiating partner LTTE has to convince that they are capable of adhering to any agreement. Lacking such conviction from LTTE is the root cause of all ills. Therefore, GOSL is absolutely right to demand that both parties revisit the CFA to iron out the loopholes that Norwegians and LTTE handily crafted to abuse. For sure those propitious for LTTE must end bring fairness to GOSL. For that reason alone the need to amend the CFA was highlighted in the GOSL’s well done opening remarks without mincing any words.

When no amendment to the CFA was mention in the closing statement, LTTE felt it was necessary to self-praise their negotiation success at the talks. But contrary to that claim, the GOSL rightly argues today that the CFA was technically amended. Although not mentioned in the 2002 CFA, the end to child recruitment by LTTE, they also agreed to prevent any form of violence and could not put the blame on "civilians" for the violence, put an end to all violence were included in the final understanding.

This I see this as a major victory for the GOSL in the world’s public opinion, that LTTE’s attempt to absolve itself from its CFA violations and now having to take responsibility to correct a wrong is a clear victory to the GOSL, a position that GOSL had held despite LTTE’s denials. It leads to the restriction of the LTTE’s child recruitment program which they heavily depend on for its long term survival. A shortfall in cadre is the biggest drawback they are facing right now. The Tsunami helped GOSL’s cause by wiping out nearly two thousand cadres and the LTTE never recovered from that dearth. The GOSL ought to stick to this issue like life depends on it, to dry out the LTTE in the long run making it their HIV in their blood stream.

In spite of their spirited objections to making any amendments to the CFA they will eventually cave-in at a later date when they see that if the smooth implementation of the existing CFA (from their point of view) would not provide any more advance protection if they so wish to proceed further in the talks. At that time the GOSL would need to stand firm to insist amendments to the CFA to preclude progress.
Peace talks are all about give and take. We all can take the high ground and demand that scum like LTTE has no place in the civilized world, and that they should seek forgiveness from the civilized world prior to seeking peace just when they are so desperate.

I can not fathom why a blood thirsty dictator like Prabhakaran is even contemplating peace talks when he so frequently gloats about the military success that will bring their ultimate goal closer. Even a dictator has limitations and we are seeing that as our advantage.

For those who grumble thinking that the GOSL lost the first round, here is something to mull over, why would the LTTE return for talks unless they have something to gain? The art of negotiating is all about building trust and implementing the understandings in good faith. The longer we drag these talks the better the GOSL will get the better of LTTE. I believe this is a case of entrapping the hunted at the opportune time.

Soon LTTE will realize that there is a limit to how much they can stretch the real story behind their armed struggle.